Small Area Forecasting

Gain foresight into the future composition and requirements of your community.

REMPLAN Forecast applies a bottom-up method we refer to as ‘ground truthing’.  Starting with base data for small planning areas, accessed from secondary sources such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics, we apply locality-specific data and analysis based on inputs from councils. This foundation is then built upon to understand the capacity and likelihood of population change in a given region.

State and federal government agencies typically apply a top-down approach to population forecasting where projections for the State, or larger region, is generated then apportioned to smaller regions and local government areas. The assumptions used in developing REMPLAN Forecast are heavily reliant on the quality of data and insights provided at a local level, accounting for the unique characteristics and constraints of each locality.

Drivers of Change

Projections in REMPLAN Forecast take into consideration trends for births, deaths, as well as domestic and overseas migration. Therefore, forecasts are influenced by factors that affect fertility and migration levels. This includes many factors such as government policy, new technology and changing social attitudes to living arrangements.

Local insights are key inputs into generating forecasts at a small area level. These relate to land use planning, current and planned residential developments, land supply pipelines as well as development constraints.