27 Jul REMPLAN Population Forecast

We are interested in the future because we will spend the rest of our lives there! 

Article by Teresa Bullock-Smith – Principal, REMPLAN Forecast Team

By understanding forecast population size and demographic characteristics, we can plan and allocate resources to meet the needs of our communities.

Population forecasts help governments estimate future growth and demand for infrastructure and services such as transportation, schools, healthcare facilities, housing, and recreational areas.

Forecasts guide decisions related to land use, zoning regulations, and development approvals. They also help in determining the scale and location of service provision, such as waste management, water supply, emergency services, and community programs. It allows governments to anticipate changes in demand and adapt service delivery accordingly.

Can we just use state government forecasts?

Absolutely, most state and territory governments publish population forecasts by 5-year age groups, and in many instances these will deliver the required insights.

So why should we prepare local population forecasts?

The value in preparing population forecasts for your communities relates to the greater use of local information to deliver more detailed and timely insights, including:

• Population forecasts developed to level of planning area within your local government area
• Population forecasts for your local government area which are based on the sum of your planning areas (bottom-up approach)
• Single year of age forecasts
• Household formation and demand for dwellings
• Annual updates.

Compared with state government published data, developing ‘bottom up’ planning area level forecasts, that include single year of age breakdowns, can make a material difference in understanding the needs of your communities into the future. 

For example, the care and services required by 2-3 years olds will be very different to the needs of 4-5 year olds. Single year of age forecasts at the planning area level are vital for guiding where and when relevant services are best delivered.

Forecasting is complex and it is necessary to take into consideration many variables.  Annual reviews and updates of population forecasts are essential.

REMPLAN Forecast Methodology Framework

What information would we need to provide to support the preparation of local population forecasts?

If you are considering preparing population forecasts for your local communities, then the people engaged to undertake the work will typically seek the following information from you and your local government colleagues:

• Your planning area boundaries – an essential first step, be prepared as work can’t commence until you define your planning areas
  
  
• A package of all your current and historical demographic and economic data – this may be as simple as providing a list of links to your online resources
  
  
• Adopted development plans and policies
  
  
• Infrastructure development and plans
  
  
• Residential land demand and supply assessment – provide as many local insights as possible regarding:
  – Current housing stock
  – Unoccupied dwellings
  – Housing affordability
  – New and planned developments.

What if we don’t have all of this information ready for the population forecasters?

Please don’t worry!   In our experience, it is not uncommon for local governments to not be able to deliver all of the above elements at the outset.   The REMPLAN Forecast team are well placed to support you and your colleagues prepare the groundwork.

Most of the required elements are relatively straightforward. 

• We can use your existing planning area boundaries or work with you to define new areas.
  
• Existing demographic data is applied by REMPLAN using our demographic analysis software, REMPLAN Community.
  
• Workshop – at the outset, we facilitate a workshop with you and your colleagues to review development and infrastructure plans and policies, as well as new and planned investments and projects.

An element that is sometimes missing is an up-to-date Land Supply Assessment.  If this is the case for your municipality then the REMPLAN Consulting team is well placed to support this work.  The analysis can be provided as a standalone deliverable, and as an input into preparing your local population forecasts.  For information regarding REMPLAN’s land supply assessment including our project methodology and recent examples of our work please make contact.      

Residential Land Demand and Supply Assessment – Enquire Now

If you have some questions and would like to discuss your preparedness to update your local population forecasts, book a 15 minute consultation with the REMPLAN Forecast team.  There is no cost or obligation, we will be happy to have a chat with you.

How are population forecasts delivered?  

REMPLAN delivers population forecasts to local governments, and to state and federal agencies, via its login software and via public access online profiles. 

REMPLAN Forecast software

Select an image below to view and explore an existing public-access REMPLAN Forecast profile.

How long will it take to deliver our population forecasts?

Once the REMPLAN Forecast team facilitate the inception workshop and all the required local information is in place, your population, households, and dwellings forecasts will be delivered within 8 weeks.

What are the risks?

There are some risks for local governments in commissioning population forecasts, including financial, quality, and the timeframe for delivery. 

How are these risks managed?

The REMPLAN Forecast team seeks to mitigate these risks for clients in the following ways.

• While the population forecasts are bespoke and tailored to your planning areas, the modes of delivery (i.e. REMPLAN Forecast software and profile) are templated products, and so you know what you are going to get.
  
• The process of defining your planning area boundaries and packaging up requested local information can take time, potentially delaying the final delivery of forecasts.  REMPLAN mitigates these risks by providing a concise shopping list of the inputs we are seeking at the outset.  We run an inception workshop within the first week of being engaged to undertake the work.
  
• When local inputs are missing, the REMPLAN team has the knowledge, resources, and capacity to step in and fill the gaps.
  
• The preparing of population forecasts is accompanied by detailed data and our documented rationale.   Our software and databases incorporate various quality testing and assurance functions.  Also, all data and forecast estimates are first tested and validated by our local government clients before being finalised and published online.              
• Finally, the subscription period does not start until the Draft forecasts are delivered.

REMPLAN forecasts are updated annually and delivered under an annual subscription.  Clients are not locked into long term contracts and so can opt to continue or discontinue based on the utility that the population forecasts
deliver.

Okay, so how do I proceed?

If you have any questions, or would like to engage REMPLAN to prepare population forecasts for your area, please contact us on 1300 737 443 or book an online consultation today:

We will then send a detailed REMPLAN Forecast proposal and quotation for you and your colleagues to review.