14 Jan Australian population trends in 2020

Authored by Simone Alexander, Senior Research Analyst at REMPLAN.

Just before Christmas the ABS released its quarterly population update. This was a highly anticipated release as it contained June 2020 data – the first quarter in which the full impact of COVID-19 related travel restrictions are realised in the data. What are the highlights of this release?

Australia’s population reached 25.69 million at June 2020. This was an increase of 1.3% on the June 2019 figure of 25.37 million, and equates to an increase of 321,300 persons. Around 57% of this growth is attributable to net overseas migration, and the remainder to natural change (births minus deaths).

However, the devil is in the detail as the annual data belies a significant change in the June quarter itself. In late March 2020, Australia’s international border was closed to non-citizens as a response to the growing spread of the COVID-19 virus. This effectively put a stop to overseas migration, which has been a critical driver of the increased level of population growth in Australia since the mid 2000s. The chart below shows the components of population change by quarter over the last three years.

Natural change has been relatively stable for the last three years. In contrast, net overseas migration is typically volatile – and even more so by quarter. The highest net gains tend to be recorded in the March quarter as this coincides with the arrival of international students at the beginning of the academic year. However the June 2020 quarter shows the impact of the international border closure. Net overseas migration was -5,880 in the June 2020 quarter, compared to 38,230 in the June 2019 quarter. The last time Australia recorded a net loss of overseas migrants in one quarter was June 1993 (-6,340) at the peak of the early 1990s recession. Given the ongoing international border closure (albeit with some minor tweaks), net overseas migration is likely to be negative for some time. This will have major impacts on how our cities grow and change, as most overseas migrants settle in cities rather than regional areas.

Population growth and the components of change differ significantly across Australia. Queensland recorded the strongest population growth of all states and territories in 2019-2020 (1.6%), marginally ahead of Victoria and Western Australia (both 1.5%). The Northern Territory was the only state or territory to record negative growth (-0.1%), largely due to a net loss of people to other parts of Australia through interstate migration. This trend has persisted for several years and is linked to the fortunes of the resources sector.

The relatively strong annual population growth recorded by Queensland, Victoria and Western Australia masks the impact of the international border closure and ongoing impacts into mid 2020. For instance, there was a significant shift with respect to interstate migration in Victoria, which recorded a loss to other parts of Australia for the first time since the June 2008 quarter. At the same time, there was no major change to the interstate migration trends in Queensland or Western Australia. Queensland has long recorded significant population gains via interstate migration and this trend continued into the June 2020 quarter. Western Australia has lost population through interstate migration in recent years, but these losses are diminishing as the economy improves.

The different drivers of population change are evident in the charts below, which show the components of population change in these three states.

In the June 2020 quarter, Victoria recorded a net loss of population from both overseas and interstate migration while natural change remained relatively stable. As a result, the population grew by 4,700 persons. The loss through interstate migration and the shift in the trend was more significant in Victoria compared to other states. It is important to note that this data precedes the hard lockdown in Victoria that occurred as a result of the second wave of COVID-19 infections. Considering that all states and territories were subject to various lockdowns at the same time it is likely that COVID-19 was a key factor, however not the only variable in play.

Queensland’s population grew by 13,030 persons in the June 2020 quarter, almost three times as much as Victoria. Like other states and territories, Queensland recorded net overseas migration loss, but population change via natural change and net interstate migration remained largely unchanged. At this point, Queensland’s long term trend of gaining population from other parts of Australia remains unaffected by COVID-19. This occurred despite a state border closure which may have impeded or delayed interstate moves.

Population change in Western Australia tends to mirror the fortunes of the resource economy and this is particularly evident through migration patterns. The population grew by 3,800 persons in the June 2020 quarter. Migration from overseas has increased in recent quarters as the economy has improved, but in the June 2020 quarter there was a small net loss (117 persons). Interstate migration has been negative in Western Australia since the mid 2010s, however, the losses have diminished in the last couple of years. In the June 2020 quarter net interstate migration was -227, a similar figure to the March 2020 quarter. The Western Australian government imposed a hard state border lockdown which has impacted the FIFO workforce in terms of the flexibility to travel between states. This may have influenced the interstate migration figures, for example if FIFO workers relocate to Western Australia on a long term basis.

The June 2020 quarter data provides an insight into the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on population change, particularly migration. Importantly, this data forms the basis of the 2019-20 small area population estimates. This includes data for local government areas, and is due for release in March 2021.

The ABS has also released preliminary estimates of internal migration. A follow up release is scheduled for February 2021 which will provide further insights into the dynamics of contemporary population trends.

These datasets are important inputs into REMPLAN’s population, household and dwelling forecasts, which are updated annually and published to REMPLAN Forecast software and public access profiles.

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